Egypt’s economy expanded by 4.77 percent in the third quarter of the fiscal year 2024/2025, marking its fastest growth in three years. This increase comes as growth rebounded in key sectors including non-oil manufacturing, tourism, and telecommunications, according to official data released by the Ministry of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation.

The preliminary figures indicate a significant rise from a 2.2 percent growth rate a year earlier, lifting the average growth for the first nine months of the fiscal year to 4.2 percent. This growth surpasses earlier expectations and reflects a growing resilience amid ongoing global uncertainties. The ministry also noted that full-year growth may exceed the government’s target of 4 percent.

Over the past five years, Egypt’s economy has faced considerable challenges and transitions, including the impact of the pandemic and rising foreign debt. In early 2024, the government secured an $8 billion rescue package from the International Monetary Fund, floated its currency—which resulted in a 38 percent depreciation—and raised interest rates significantly.

Dr. Rania Al-Mashat, the Minister of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation, emphasized that the robust recovery seen in the third quarter demonstrates the economy’s resilience against global pressures. The ministry attributed the higher-than-expected GDP growth to strong performances in key sectors, highlighting the effectiveness of the country’s macroeconomic policies and structural reforms.

The report detailed that the momentum aligns with the government’s strategy to promote private sector-led growth, focusing on transitioning to a more competitive, export-oriented economy. Growth projections suggest that the economy will rebound from around 3 percent in 2023 to an estimated 4.2 percent by 2025, driven largely by private investment, infrastructure projects, and a recovery in tourism.

Inflation rates, which peaked near 38 percent in late 2023, are expected to decrease to approximately 12 percent to 13 percent by early 2025. Despite this positive outlook, the country continues to face challenges such as energy deficits, decreasing gas production, substantial external debt, and widening current-account and budget deficits.

The strong economic performance is also attributed to the ongoing implementation of the National Structural Reform Program, which aims to enhance macroeconomic stability and broaden private sector participation. The report indicated that non-oil manufacturing output grew by 16 percent in the quarter, recovering from a 4 percent contraction a year earlier.

Significant contributions to this growth included a 93 percent increase in motor vehicle production, a 58 percent rise in ready-made garments, and a 34 percent boost in beverage production. The tourism sector reported a 23 percent growth, with visitor arrivals reaching 4 million and tourist nights increasing to 41 million.

Telecommunications saw an expansion of 14.7 percent, while financial intermediation grew by 17.34 percent. Conversely, public investment contracted by 45.6 percent, resulting in a negative overall contribution of investment to GDP growth, estimated at minus 2.44 percentage points.

Despite some sectors facing declines, including a 23.1 percent drop in Suez Canal activity due to geopolitical tensions, the government remains optimistic. It projects GDP growth of 4.5 percent for the fiscal year 2025/2026, as outlined in the Economic and Social Development Plan approved by Parliament in June. The plan caps public investment at 1.158 trillion Egyptian pounds ($24.64 billion), allocating about 47 percent of treasury-funded investments to health, education, and social services.