The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt are expected to reap significant benefits from the recent reordering of the global trade framework led by the United States, according to Ebru Pakcan, the CEO of Citigroup Mena. This insight indicates a favorable outlook for these two countries compared to others in the Mena region.

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In contrast, oil-producing nations such as Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain may face challenges due to the lowest international oil prices seen in four years. Resource-poor Jordan, which initially faced a 20 percent US tariff rate that was later reduced to 10 percent, will also encounter difficulties.

Pakcan noted, “The UAE is probably going to be one of the beneficiaries of what we are experiencing in terms of how trade flows; supply chains, logistics are going to potentially be reforming.” She highlighted that the UAE stands out among Gulf oil producers due to its successful diversification away from an oil-dependent economy.

According to Citigroup’s forecasts, the Mena region’s GDP is set to grow by approximately 2.5 percent this year, with the Gulf Cooperation Council’s six member states projected to achieve a growth rate of 3.7 percent. Both figures are lower than earlier predictions, especially following President Trump’s recent tariff increases on US imports, which are now at their highest in over a century. However, these growth rates remain above global trends, Pakcan stated.

Despite the ongoing uncertainties, Pakcan expressed a bearish outlook on oil prices for the remainder of the year, expecting them to hover around $60 per barrel. The Brent crude benchmark is currently trading at about $62 per barrel.

Pakcan pointed out that less diversified oil economies, such as Iraq, Kuwait, and Oman, might struggle with fiscal challenges, while Saudi Arabia, being the world’s second-largest oil producer, is believed to be in a better position to manage these difficulties due to its diversification efforts.

Egypt is seen as a potential magnet for foreign direct investment in light of the global trade shifts. Pakcan remarked that the new tariff landscape might create significant opportunities for Egypt, indicating positive prospects for its economy in the upcoming quarters.