Gulf Arab airlines and other carriers in the Middle East are set to expand their fleets at nearly twice the global average rate over the next decade, according to industry experts. This growth is expected to center on narrow-body aircraft, which are increasingly favored for their suitability in the low-cost travel model.

Globally, the fleet size is projected to grow by 2.8 percent per year, while the Middle East is anticipated to see a growth rate of approximately 5.1 percent, reaching a total of 2 600 aircraft by 2035, as reported by international business strategy consultants Oliver Wyman. Currently, narrow-body planes make up 43 percent of the region’s fleets, but this number is expected to increase to 47 percent due to factors such as expanded range and rising demand for air travel.

Middle Eastern airlines, including Dubai’s Emirates, Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways, and Qatar Airways, mainly operate wide-body, twin-aisle planes. In contrast, carriers like Flydubai, Sharjah’s Air Arabia, and Kuwait’s Jazeera Airways primarily utilize single-aisle, narrow-body jets. The share of narrow-body aircraft is projected to grow as airlines seek to add secondary cities to their networks and respond to increased regional travel.

Linus Bauer, managing director of Singapore-based aviation consultancy BAA & Partners, noted that while long-haul connectivity remains a strength for many Gulf carriers, there is significant structural growth occurring in regional and domestic air travel. This trend is expected to benefit aircraft manufacturers such as Airbus and Boeing, particularly with their new single-aisle models like the Airbus A321XLR and the Boeing 737 Max, which offer improved fuel efficiency and flexibility for medium-haul routes.

However, challenges persist in the industry. The two major aircraft manufacturers, particularly Boeing, are facing production delays. Airbus is dealing with certification issues related to the A321XLR, while Boeing continues to confront quality-control concerns with its 737 Max. Additionally, a shortage of pilots is projected, with Oliver Wyman estimating a global shortfall of 80 000 pilots by 2032, with the Middle East accounting for nearly 25 percent of this need. John Grant, a partner at Midas Aviation, emphasized that the demand for experienced pilots is growing, making recruitment increasingly challenging and costly.